Inside the Chalk

The Arizona Diamondbacks almost blew a 7-2 late lead to the San Franciso Giants last night at Oracle Park but held on to win game 1 of their 3-game set, 8-7. Tonight the D-backs are expected to send their ace, Zack Gallen, to the hill. Gallen has not been as sharp as he usually is, but the flamethrower is still 10-6 with a 3.87 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and is due for a dominant outing. On the flip side, the Giants are expected to have Hayden Birdsong tapping the rubber. Birdsong is at 3-4 with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Edge Snakes. Arizona is in a dog fight with San Diego for a Wild Card spot and winning the division is not out of the equation, sitting 6 back of the Dodgers for the lead in the NL West. San Francisco on the other hand is done for the season and they know it. The Giants have nothing to play for except pride. The D-backs have won 5 of the 8 meetings with the Giants this year and are #1 in the majors in runs scored, averaging over 5.4 per game.
TONIGHT’S PICK: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

The New York Mets and the Boston Red Sox will play the middle game of their 3-game set tonight at Citi Field. With last night’s 4-1 victory over the Red Sox, the Mets have now won 5 straight, outscoring their opponents 19-7 over that span, and are just a half game back of the Atlanta Braves for the final NL Wild Card spot. Lefty David Peterson will get the start for New York. Peterson is 8-1 with a 2.83 ERA and will be working on 4 days’ rest but that’s fine. The Mets are 8-0 in his last 8 starts with the short rest. Boston has lost 3 straight and have mustered just 3 runs over the 3 games. Their expected starter is Kutter Crawford who is 8-12 with a 4.12 ERA. Crawford has faced the Mets once in his career and the result was a loss. The Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games and are hot. Ride them ’til they are not.
TONIGHT’S PICK: NEW YORK METS

The Kansas City Royals have lost 5 straight but after a long road trip they return home to The K today to open a 3-game set with their AL Central rival, the Cleveland Guardians. The Royals are just 3½ back of the Guardians for the AL Central lead so this is their opportunity to gain some ground on Cleveland, and they will. The Royals have been tough to beat at home, with an impressive 41-28 record, and just last week took 3 out of 4 from the Guardians in Cleveland. Today’s expected starters favor Kansas City. Cleveland in all likelihood will send Gavin Williams to the hill and his numbers are not good. Williams is 2-7 with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. Kansas City is expected to give the nod to Michael Wacha. He is 11-6 with a 3.50 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and the Royals are 5-1 in his last 6 starts.
TODAY’S PICK: KANSAS CITY ROYALS

The New York Yankees and the St. Louis Cardinals will play the rubber game of their 3-game set this afternoon at the Stadium. The AL East leading Yanks are 79-57 overall and 37-30 in the Bronx. The Cards sit at 68-68 overall and 32-36 on the road. The Bombers, who are averaging over 5 runs per game and lead the league in home runs with 209, should get to the Cardinals’ expected starter, Miles Mikolas. He is 8-10 with an elevated ERA of 5.23 and a 1.26 WHIP. The Yankees are expected to counter with southpaw Nestor Cortez, who has been dealing. Over his last 3 starts, Nasty Nestor is 3-0 with a nasty ERA of only 0.44 and a 0.58 WHIP, which doesn’t bode well for a Cardinals team that is just 1-6 in their last 7 games against a left-handed starter.
TODAY’S PICK: NEW YORK YANKEES

The Philadelphia Phillies lost to the Atlanta Braves last night, 7-2, but I expect they rebound tonight when they play the third game of their 4-game set at Citizens Bank Park. Southpaw Max Fried is expected to get the start for Atlanta. Fried is 8-7 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Phillies ace, Zack Wheeler, is slated to get the nod and he is 12-6 with an ERA of only 2.74 and a 1.00 WHIP. Despite last night’s loss, the Phillies are still an impressive 45-24 at home and are 6-0 in their last 6 games against a left-handed starter.
TONIGHT’S PICK: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

The 76-58 Cleveland Guardians hold a slim 1½ game lead over the Kansas City Royals for the top spot in the AL Central, so they have to take care of business this weekend when they open a 3-game set with the 62-71 Pittsburgh Pirates tonight at Progressive Field. Tonight’s expected starters are Ben Lively for Cleveland and Bailey Falter for Pittsburgh. Falter is 6-7 with a 4.25 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and over his last three starts his ERA has soared to 6.75 with a 1.77 WHIP. Lively has pitched well, with an 11-8 record, a 3.62 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP. The Guardians are also 7-0 in Lively’s last 7 home starts against a team with a losing record and have the edge in runs scored, run differential, batting average, and home runs.
TONIGHT’S PICK: CLEVELAND GUARDIANS

The 75-59 Kansas City Royals will head to Minute Maid Park tonight to open a 4-game set with the 71-62 Houston Astros. The Royals are just one game back of Cleveland for the lead in the AL Central and will send Brady Singer to the hill. Singer has decent numbers with a record of 9-9, an ERA of 3.38 and a 1.25 WHIP. The Astros own the top spot in the very weak AL West and are expected to send Hunter Brown to the bump. Brown also has decent numbers with a record of 11-7, a 3.72 ERA, and a 1.32 WHIP, but in his career against Kansas City he is 0-2 with a disastrous 36.82 ERA – and that is not a typo! The Royals have owned the Astros, winning 6 straight and 8 of the last 9 meetings. Consider the road dog Royals tonight.
TONIGHT’S PICK: KANSAS CITY ROYALS