Inside the Chalk

With last night’s 5-0 loss at home to the 45-75 Miami Marlins, the 69-50 Philadelphia Phillies have now lost four straight and have been outscored over that span, 31-8. Despite their recent skid, the Phillies are still in the top spot in the NL East with a comfortable 6-game lead over the Atlanta Braves. In tonight’s second game of their 2-game set, Miami is expected to hand the ball to Edward Cabrera. He has pitched well of late, but Harper and company should be able to get to him. Cabrera is still just 2-3 with a 5.21 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Philadelphia is expected to send Tyler Phillips to the hill. Phillips is 4-1 with a 4.83 ERA and an excellent WHIP of only 1.07. The Phillies are by far the better team on the diamond tonight and should get back on track. They have the edge in runs scored, run differential, batting average, hits, homers, etc., etc. Even the best in the business, which the Phillies are, go through slumps but slumps don’t last forever.
TONIGHT’S PICK: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

After a lengthy road trip and being swept over the weekend by the Seattle Mariners, the New York Mets will be glad to be back in Queens tonight when they open a 3-game set with the 50-69 Oakland Athletics. The 61-57 Mets are just ½ game back of the Atlanta Braves for the final NL Wild Card spot but if they want to stay in the hunt, they have to take care of business at home against the bottom feeding Athletics and they know it. New York will send the ex-Athletic, Paul Blackburn, to the hill. Blackburn will be extra motivated to put the screws to his old team and prove they made a mistake when they dealt him to New York. He is 5-2 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. The Mets’ bats have been ice cold but I expect Alonso and company will change that tonight when they face the A’s expected starter, Ross Stripling. Stripling is just 2-11 with an elevated ERA of 5.72, a 1.47 WHIP, and hasn’t won a game since July 25th. New York has the edge in runs scored, run differential, hits, batting average, and is the side to consider tonight.
TONIGHT’S PICK: NEW YORK METS

The 60-58 St. Louis Cardinals will be a road favorite when they open a 3-game set tonight with the 57-61 Cincinnati Reds. The Cardinals were off yesterday so they will be well-rested and are expected to have their workhorse, Sonny Gray, on the hill. He is 11-6 with a 3.65 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and always goes deep into games. In his last outing against the Tampa Bay Rays, Gray pitched 7 innings, yielded just 2 runs on 4 hits, and St. Louis went on to a 4-3 victory. The Reds are expected to counter with southpaw Andrew Abbott. Abbott is 9-9 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and he did not look good in his last turn against the lowly Miami Marlins. The Fish torched him for 6 runs on 6 hits over 5 innings of work and Cincinatti fell 6-4. Abbott has also not fared well against the Cardinals, posting a 2-2 record with a bloated 6.10 ERA, and the Reds are 0-4 in his last 4 starts.
TONIGHT’S PICK: SAINT LOUIS CARDINALS

The Cleveland Guardians and the Minnesota Twins will wrap up their 4-game set this afternoon at Target Field. The Twins took the first 2 in a double-header on Friday, but Cleveland bounced back yesterday with a 2-1 win. Today’s expected starter for the Twins is David Festa, who looked sharp in his last outing against the Cubs but is still 2-2 with an elevated ERA of 5.55 and a 1.27 WHIP. The Guardians are expected to give the nod to Tanner Bibee. He has been delivering, with a record of 9-4, a 3.48 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP. Cleveland sits in the top spot in the AL Central, but Minnesota is on their tail, just 2½ games back. The Guardians would love to get out of the Twin Cities with a split and they should. Cleveland is 9-0 in Bibee’s last 9 road starts against a team with a winning record and have won 7 of the last 9 meetings against their AL Central rival.
TODAY’S PICK: CLEVELAND GUARDIANS

The LA Dodgers had better start looking over their shoulder because the San Diego Padres are breathing down their necks, sitting just 2½ games behind them for the top spot in the NL West. With last night’s 6-2 win over the bottom feeding Miami Marlins, the hottest team in the majors, the Padres, have won 6 straight and I expect that streak will continue this afternoon at Loan Depot Park. In the second game of their 3-game set, the expected starters are Matt Waldron for San Diego and Roddery Muñoz for Miami. Waldron is 7-9 with a 3.79 ERA and a respectable WHIP of 1.16. Muñoz is just 2-6 with an elevated 5.68 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. The Friars always take care of business against the Fish and this year is no different. In their four meetings in 2024, San Diego is 3-1 and has outscored Miami 21-4 over that span.
TODAY’S PICK: SAN DIEGO PADRES

The 68-48 Baltimore Orioles will travel south to St. Pete tonight to open a 3-game set with their AL East rival, the 58-56 Tampa Bay Rays. The Orioles have won 6 of the 7 meetings with the Rays this year including a 4-game sweep of Tampa at the Trop back in June. The expected starter for Baltimore is ex-Ray Zach Eflin who was traded to the O’s in July so he knows the mound, the stadium, the players’ likes and dislikes and will make the Rays pay for their mistake. Eflin is better than his record reflects. Ef is 7-7 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. The Rays are expected to give the go-ahead to Zack Littell who is 5-7 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Littell had better be in the zone because the Orioles can score, averaging over 5 runs per game.
TONIGHT’S PICK: BALTIMORE ORIOLES

After losing game 1 of their 3-game set with the Colorado Rockies, the New York Mets bounced back yesterday and will go for a series win this afternoon in a matinée at Coors Field. The Mets expected starter, David Peterson, is a Colorado native so he will be extra motivated to deliver, and he has been doing just that. The southpaw is 5-1 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. The Rockies are expected to counter with Austin Gomber, who comes in at 3-7 with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. New York has played well on the road with a record of 30-25, average more runs per game than Colorado, belt more homers, average more hits per game, and the Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 games against a left-handed starter.
TODAY’S PICK: NEW YORK METS