Inside the Chalk

The Milwaukee Brewers own the top spot in the NL Central but they shouldn’t get too complacent because the Cincinnati Reds, who are playing good baseball, are 7-1/2 games back and still within striking distance. The Brewers lost Game 1 of their 3-game set last night to the Twins, 2-0, and have now lost two straight but with Adrian Houser expected on the hill for the Brew their chances of getting back on track today look good. Houser has been been throwing flames. Over his last 3 turns, Houser is 1-0 with a nasty ERA of just 0.61 and a WHIP to match at 0.89. The expected starter for the Twins, lefty Charlie Barnes, has been just the opposite. Over his last 3 starts, Barnes is 0-2 with a bloated ERA of 8.36 and a 1.79 WHIP. The Brewers have excelled on the road this year, going 42-22, and are 20-7 in their last 27 as a road favorite. The Twins, who have nothing to play for except pride, are 31-33 at home and rarely put together back-to-back wins.
TODAY’S PICK: MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Despite being red hot and winning 9 of their last 10, the Los Angeles Dodgers still trail the San Francisco Giants by 2-1/2 games for the lead in the NL West. This weekend they should be able to make up some ground, with the Giants visiting the always tough Atlanta Braves while the Dodgers host the Colorado Rockies at Chavez Ravine. The Rockies have been awful on the road, at 15-47, and are expected to turn to Kyle Freeland to throw strikes. Freeland is upside down, at 4-6, with 4.25 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and is just 2-7 lifetime against the Dodgers. The starter for Los Angeles has yet to be named but whoever it is, it shouldn’t matter. LA is 42-21 at home and 10-3 this year against Colorado. Consider the Champs.
TONIGHT’S PICK: LOS ANGELES DODGERS

The Boston Red Sox lead over the Oakland Athletics for the second AL Wild Card spot is now just 1-1/2 games, after falling to the bottom-dwelling Minnesota Twins yesterday in extras, 9-6. The Red Sox will look to get back on track tonight and a series win when the two clubs wrap up their 3-game set at Fenway. Boston will send the best southpaw in the majors to the hill, Chris Sale. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, Sale is doing what Sale does best and that is deliver. In his two starts since his return, Sale is 2-0 with a nasty ERA of 1.80 and a 1.20 WHIP. Minnesota is expected to have John Gant toeing the rubber. Gant (4-7, 3.77 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) was acquired in a trade from St. Louis and has not been producing, going 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA since joining the Twins. Boston has won 4 of the last 6 meetings this year against Minnesota, they are 40-26 at home, and have Chris Sale on the hill.
TONIGHT’S PICK: BOSTON RED SOX

The Philadelphia Phillies will look to salvage a split when they wrap up their 2-game set tonight with the Tampa Bay Rays at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia lost a close one last night to Tampa, 3-1, but were without Andrew McCutchen and Rhys Hoskins. Both should be in the lineup tonight. Zack Wheeler, the expected starter for the Phillies, should be able to slow down the explosive Rays offense. Wheeler is 10-8 with an ERA of only 2.77 and a 1.00 WHIP. Ryan Yarbrough is expected on the hill for Tampa. Yarborough is 7-4 with a mediocre ERA of 4.57 and a 1.17 WHIP. Over his last 3 turns, Yarbrough is 0-0 and his ERA has jumped to 5.82. Philadelphia sits just 4-1/2 games back of Atlanta for the top spot in the NL East. Up next for the Phillies are three of the worst teams in the National League: the Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals, and Miami Marlins. Atlanta will have to face the red hot San Francisco Giants over the weekend, followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers, so now is the Phillies’ chance to gain some ground and it starts tonight. The Rays have won six straight against the Phillies but are just 3-7 in their last 10 at Citizens Bank Park.
TONIGHT’S PICK: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Even though the San Diego Padres appear to be spiraling out of control, they are still very much alive in the hunt for the second Wild Card spot in the NL. San Diego needs to get back on track now and who better to do that against than your hated enemy, the Los Angeles Dodgers? The Padres and Dodgers will kick off a crucial 3-game set for both teams tonight at Petco Park. Los Angeles is expected to give the nod to Julio Urías, who has been stellar all year with a record of 13-3 and a 3.29 ERA. San Diego made a bold move yesterday, firing their pitching coach, Larry Rothschild, and have not announced who will toe the rubber but we might see the return of Yu Darvish, who is 7-7 with a 3.70 ERA and knows the Dodgers well. There is no line on this one yet but I will bet the Friars will be a home dog which is just fine. San Diego has won 7 of the last 8 meetings this year with LA and the last 4 at Petco.
TONIGHT’S PICK: SAN DIEGO PADRES

The Atlanta Braves and the New York Yankees are both riding a 9-game winning streak and one of them will buckle tonight when they open a quick 2-game set at Truist Park. The expected starters for tonight’s matchup are New York’s southpaw Jordan Montgomery and Atlanta’s Huascar Ynoa. Both hurlers have been delivering. Over his last 3 turns, Monty is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Ynoa is 1-1 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. Atlanta has ripped off 9 straight but keep in mind those wins were against Washington, Miami, and Baltimore. Not very stiff competition. On the other hand, the Yankees 9 game run has been against Boston and the White Sox, with the only easy foe coming against the Minnesota Twins. New York is 21-5 in their last 26 overall, 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games, 6-0 in their last 6 against the National League East, 14-6 in their last 20 against the Braves, and they are a currently a dog. Consider the Bombers in this one.
TONIGHT’S PICK: NEW YORK YANKEES

The NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers will go for the series win today when they wrap up their 3-game set with the Washington Nationals at American Family Field. The Brewers’ bats erupted yesterday and so did All Star Christian Yelich’s, and that could be trouble for Washington’s expected starter, Sean Nolin. Nolin has made just one start this year in the Bigs and is 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA and a 2.67 WHIP. Not good. The Brewers are expected to have Adrian Houser toe the rubber and he has been on his mark. Houser is 7-5 with a 3.55 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and over his last 3 he is 1-0 with a 2.93 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. Houser is returning from COVID-19 protocol so his pitch count could be limited but that won’t matter; the Brewers have one of the best bullpens in the Majors. The Nationals, who underachieved this year and have nothing to play for, are 5-16 in their last 21 road games and 1-4 in their last 5 in Milwaukee.
TONIGHT’S PICK: MILWAUKEE BREWERS