Inside the Chalk

The Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays will play the rubber game of their 3-game set this afternoon at Fenway. The Red Sox have been on a roll, winning 16 of their last 18 games, and are expected to get southpaw Ranger Suárez back in the rotation. Two-time All-Star Suárez is 4-3 with a 3.15 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and has dominated the Jays in his career with a perfect 2-0 record and a ridiculous ERA of 0.00. Toronto is expected to give the nod to Kevin Gausman and he has struggled. Gausman is 4-9 with a 4.51 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and Toronto is 0-7 in his last 7 starts. The Jays have just 2 wins in their last 7 tries and have major issues. How do you go from almost winning the World Series the year prior to the bottom feeders in the AL East? I’ll tell you how. Last year they had Don Mattingly on the bench and this year they don’t. Changes need to be made, and it starts with management.
TODAY’S PICK: BOSTON RED SOX

The Arizona Diamondbacks took Game 1 of their 3-game set with the Washington Nationals with a 3-2 victory last night at Nationals Park. Arizona has now won 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 but they will be challenged today with the Nationals’ expected starter, lefty Foster Griffin, getting the nod. To say Griffin has been in the zone would be an understatement. He is 11-2 with an ERA of only 2.69 and a 1.03 WHIP. Griffin has not lost a game since May 14th and over his last 8 starts he has not allowed more than 1 run. The last time he faced Arizona on June 5th he allowed just 1 run on 2 hits and Washington rolled to a 14-1 victory. The Nationals are first in the majors with runs scored, first in home runs, and should send the Diamondbacks’ expected starter, southpaw Mitch Bratt, packing early. Bratt is 0-0 with an elevated ERA of 5.06 and a 1.78 WHIP over just 10.2 innings of work.
TODAY’S PICK: WASHINGTON NATIONALS

The Tampa Bays Rays and the Cleveland Guardians will open a 3-game set tonight in St. Pete. The Rays own the best record in the American League, at 59-43, as well as the best home record in all of baseball at 35-15. Tonight they are expected to turn to southpaw Shane McClanahan to throw strikes. McClanahan is 8-6 with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. The 54-50 Guardians are expected to send fellow southpaw Joey Cantillo to the bump. Cantillo has similar numbers to McClanahan, at 8-5 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Cleveland has lost its last two games and after last night’s 12 inning loss to the Minnesota Twins their bullpen will be depleted. The Rays took two of three from the Guardians in Cleveland back in April and when the Rays take the field at the Trop they are always the side to consider.
TONIGHT’S PICK: TAMPA BAY RAYS

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Arizona Diamondbacks will play a makeup game this afternoon at Busch Stadium. Today’s expected starters are Michael McGreevy for the Cardinals and Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks. Pfaadt is 4-1 on the season but has an elevated ERA of 4.58 and a 1.31 WHIP. McGreevy might be 4-7 on the season but don’t let that sway you. He has an excellent ERA of 2.92, a WHIP of only 1.10, and St. Louis is 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the NL West.
TODAY’S PICK: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

The New York Yankees and the Pittsburgh Pirates will play a day/night double-header today in the Bronx. The expected starter for the Yankees in Game 1 is their ace, Gerrit Cole. He is 3-5 with a 3.93 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and is starting to show signs that he is back to form after his Tommy John surgery. Cole was dominant in his last turn against the LA Dodgers allowing just 2 runs on 4 hits over 6 frames, but their offense didn’t show up and New York went on to lose 1-2. The Pirates are expected to counter with Mitch Keller and the Yankees hot bats should light him up. He is 6-7 with a 5.14 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and it gets worse. Over his last 3 turns, Keller is 1-2 with a bloated ERA of 6.60 and in his career against the Yankees he is 0-2 with an ERA of 10.24.
TODAY’S PICK: NEW YORK YANKEES – GAME 1

The Tampa Bay Rays snapped their 5-game skid last night, cruising to an easy 7-1 victory over the host Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays still hold the top spot in the AL East with a 1.5 game lead over the New York Yankees while the Jays sit in the cellar at 11.5 games back. Tonight in the second game of their 4-game set at Rogers Centre the Rays are likely to give the nod to Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen has decent numbers, at 7-5 with a respectable 3.26 ERA and a WHIP of only 0.95. The Jays are expected to send Kevin Gausman to the hill. Gausman’s numbers are nothing to write home about. He is 4-8 with a 4.33 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and in his career against the Rays he is 8-10 with a 4.26 ERA. The Jays are in a tailspin with just one win in their last six tries and Tampa has dominated Toronto this year, winning six of the seven meetings.
TONIGHT’S PICK: TAMPA BAY RAYS

The 57-41 Atlanta Braves will open a 4-game set tonight with the 49-50 San Diego Padres at Truist Park. The Padres swept the Braves in a 3-game set back in June at Petco Park but now the Braves have them on their turf and the outcome will be different. Tonight’s expected starters are Bryce Elder for Atlanta and lefty JP Sears for San Diego. Elder is 5-6 with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Sears comes in at 2-2 with a 5.03 ERA and a WHIP of 1.42. Atlanta can score, averaging 5 runs per game, and should be able to do some damage against the mediocre-at-best Sears. Elder is better than his numbers reflect and after a couple of shaky starts is due for a shutdown game. The Braves boast a 29-19 record at Truist Park and have the edge in runs scored, run differential, batting average, hits, homers, team ERA, and the list goes on.
TONIGHT’S PICK: ATLANTA BRAVES